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Huiling: yo dadddddddddd!
YO! =DD


so i was at xiaxue's blog last night, and i came across this rather interesting section on The Monty Hall Problem.

so here's the question:

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors:
Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats.

You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat.

He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?"

Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Answer: YES!

well most people would say that the chances are now 50/50, and so switching your choice doesn't really make much a difference. but in fact, a switch should be made - it doubles the probability of winning the car from 1/3 to 2/3!

personally i didn't quite understand why (and due to my poor internet connection, i couldn't read more about the solution), and so i thought through the night about the math behind the problem. and finally today, after reading the explanation, i got it! =D

read more here.


here's another simpler problem involving probability. i suppose this would be far easier to comprehend.

A shopkeeper says she has two new baby beagles to show you, but she doesn't know whether they're male, female, or a pair.

You tell her that you want only a male, and she telephones the fellow who's giving them a bath.

"Is at least one a male?" she asks him. "Yes!" she informs you with a smile.

What is the probability that the other one is a male?

Answer: 1/3

read more here, if you don't understand.